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XM Research - 1 hour ago

How will the US elections impact the markets?

Harris takes the lead in most polls as Trump’s campaign stalls But what does a Harris win mean for stocks and the US dollar? Can Trump turn things around and what would investors prefer? Late entry The US presidential election is drawing ever closer and there can be no doubt that the race heated up after President Joe Biden abruptly dropped out.

XM Research - 3 hours ago

Volatility eases a bit ahead of the key Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar weakness lingers Volatility in commodities stays elevated led by silver Stock indices and bitcoin experience lower volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains low as the market is preparing for the key Fed meeting on Wednesday that could deliver a previously unexpected 50bps rate cut. Amidst these conditions, yen pairs are experiencing the highest volatility of the past month as the yen continues to outperform its main counterparties on

XM Research - 1 week ago

Equities volatility jumps as sentiment turns negative – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as market digests US data prints Volatility in commodities remains low apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much higher volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is digesting last week’s US labour market data and preparing for Wednesday’s CPI report, which could play a role in determining the size of the imminent Fed rate cut.

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Stocks could suffer after the September Fed rate cut

US labour market data to determine the size of the first Fed rate cut History points to an increased possibility of a 50bps move Analysis reveals sizeable equities’ weakness after the initial cut Following Fed Chairman Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and this indirect announcement of the much-discussed Fed rate cut, the market is counting down to the September 18 meeting.

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Can gold prices surge to new all-time highs by year end?

Gold increases 21% so far this year US data and geopolitical tensions are driving gold Bigger picture remains strongly positive Gold still soaring in long-term view Gold has been performing remarkably well so far this year, with a gain of 21% and a record high of $2,531 on August 20. The impending release of US economic data, increased geopolitical tensions, and hints of nearing rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are the main driving forces behind this rise.

XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.

XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Volatility ebbs as recession fears evaporate – Volatility Watch

Besides EUR/USD, FX volatility subsides as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in precious metals is still high, but oil enters calmer waters Stock indices and Bitcoin volatility at their bottom of their 30-day range Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected July NFP report have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths. This week, investors are focused on Jerome Powell's Jackson H

XM Research - 1 month ago

Market anxiety fades but volatility remains high – Volatility Watch

FX volatility smoothens a little bit as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in commodities still high amid resurgence of geopolitical tensions Stock indices and Bitcoin still volatile while traders unwind bearish bets Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected NFP report two weeks ago have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths.

XM Research - 1 month ago

Is the US data that bad to justify a rate cut?

The recent acute market reaction occurred due to increased recession fears Surprise indices point to a more balanced US economic situation Recessions tend to be caused by one-off major events The recent market drop has been attributed to higher chances of a US recession It has been a very volatile period in markets. The recent higher-than-expected rate hike by the BoJ caused a knee-jerk reaction in Japanese stock markets that led to the yen making significant gains across the boar

XM Research - 1 month ago

Market angst pushes volatility higher across the board – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility skyrockets as recession fears resurface Volatility in commodities jumps as geopolitics takes centre stage Stock indices experience much stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, jumped to the highest level of the past month as fears of recession, on the back of last Friday’s weak US labour market report, resulted in the market pricing in an aggressive easing path for most central banks during 2024.

XM Research - 2 months ago

Volatility remains elevated across the board – Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile after BoJ hike aids yen's recovery Volatility in commodity sphere jumps amid geopolitical flare ups Global stock indices in turbulent waters but for different reasons Volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the latest interest rate hike by the BoJ has added more fuel to the yen’s recovery from multi-year lows against major peers.

XM Research - 2 months ago

What to expect from markets in the run up to US elections?

Presidential race dominates headlines and complicates Fed’s job Equities suffered in the two months leading up to the last six presidential elections Market’s performance in the 2016 pre-election period could be a useful guide Dollar strengthened in 2016 but equities were under pressure Significant developments in the race lately The recent gun attack against Donald Trump and US President Biden's candidacy withdrawal last weekend have raised even more the profile of

XM Research - 2 months ago

Heightened volatility across all asset classes – Volatility Watch

• Yen crosses are volatile as they retreat from multi-year highs • Volatility in oil and gold surges, Bitcoin follows suit • US equities exhibit higher volatility amid correction fears The euro and dollar pairs maintain low volatility ahead of the US PCE release on Friday and a quiet week on the European data front. On the flipside, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the pairs have been extending their latest pullbacks from multi-year highs.

XM Research - 2 months ago

A repeat of the 2006-07 price action could spell trouble for the S&P 500

Performance of key market assets resembles the 2006-07 period The S&P 500 index could experience a sizable correction The current US 10-year yield drop could have legs Yen could benefit further as euro/dollar volatility is possibly heading north Fed readies for a September rate cut Almost one year after the last Fed rate hike, the latest developments in the US, predominantly the recent labour market report and last week's weaker inflation prints, have probably tipped

XM Research - 2 months ago

Gold’s astounding rally and the challenges ahead

Gold gains around 18% year-to-date But is it time for the uptrend to cool down a bit? Even if so, the broader outlook remains positive Gold shines bright Gold had a great year-to-date performance, gaining around 18% and hitting a record high of 2450 on May 20. As discussed in previous reports, gold’s uptrend was fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, continued central bank buying and strong consumer demand, especially in China, as well as expectations of lower borrowing costs, at

XM Research - 2 months ago

Higher market volatility led by yen, gold and equities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the

XM Research - 2 months ago

A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.

XM Research - 2 months ago

Lower FX volatility as equities appear agitated – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election.

XM Research - 3 months ago

Could the post-UK elections market moves resemble 1997 and 2010?

Thursday's UK elections expected to bring political change Similar developments in both 1997 and 2010 weighed on the pound History points to a significant easing in pound volatility across the board Recent FTSE 100 performance matches the 2015 pre-election moves General election in sight The UK general election will be held this Thursday, July 4, the day that the US will be celebrating its 248th anniversary from the adoption of the Declaration of Independence.

XM Research - 3 months ago

Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April

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