Currencies hit multi-month lows as Trump closes in on US presidency
By Anita Komuves and Karol Badohal
WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Nov 6 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies slipped to multi-month lows on Wednesday as markets bet Republican Donald Trump was moving closer to winning the U.S. presidential election, with Hungary's forint leading losses and at its weakest in nearly two years.
Analysts generally assume Trump's plans for restricted immigration, tax cuts and sweeping tariffs, if enacted, would put upward pressure on inflation, potentially limiting how far U.S. interest rates might ultimately be lowered and pushing up the dollar.
That dollar strength has been a drag on emerging markets, including in central Europe.
By 0654 GMT the Hungarian forint EURHUF=, central Europe's worst performer so far this year, dropped 0.7% on the day to trade at 412.35 per euro, its weakest since mid-December 2022.
The Czech crown EURCZK= and Polish zloty EURPLN= were both 0.4% weaker against the euro, trading at 25.45 and 4.3750 respectively. The crown was weakest since August, while the zloty hit its lowest since June.
Central European currencies have suffered losses in past weeks, led by the forint, as uncertainties around the U.S. presidential election and tensions in the Middle East put pressure on emerging market assets.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 0754 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.4500 | 25.3380 | -0.44% | -2.94% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 412.3500 | 409.5250 | -0.69% | -7.07% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3750 | 4.3589 | -0.37% | -0.70% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9760 | 4.9755 | -0.01% | -0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9600 | 117.0600 | +0.09% | +0.24% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1666.49 | 1666.4900 | +0.00% | +17.85% |
Budapest | .BUX | 74343.85 | 74343.85 | +0.00% | +22.64% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2236.48 | 2236.48 | +0.00% | -4.55% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17236.29 | 17236.29 | +0.00% | +12.13% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.6580 | 0.2040 | +143bps | +28bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7730 | -0.0200 | +150bps | +0bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.1540 | 0.0580 | +172bps | +6bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0160 | 0.0060 | +279bps | +8bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3850 | -0.0020 | +311bps | +2bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6690 | -0.0280 | +324bps | -3bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.84 | 3.61 | 3.48 | 4.05 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.65 | 6.58 | 6.50 | 6.51 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.73 | 5.40 | 5.06 | 5.84 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
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Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Alex Richardson
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