FX drifts after strong showing for Harris in U.S. debate
By Alan Charlish
WARSAW, Sept 11 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were moving sideways in Wednesday morning trade, as investors digested a U.S. presidential debate and looked ahead to an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris put her Republican rival Donald Trump on the defensive in a combative presidential debate on Tuesday with a stream of attacks on his fitness for office, his support of abortion restrictions and his myriad legal woes.
"Trump is widely considered to be dangerous for emerging market currencies because of protectionism so (a strong debate performance) could have been a potential negative for CEE FX," said Piotr Poplawski, senior economist at ING.
"But since we see... Harris winning the debate, which is what's in the polls, we have seen a very muted market impact."
Poplawski said markets were also looking ahead to an ECB rate decision on Thursday, which is expected to see the deposit rate cut by 25 basis points to 3.25%.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.07% weaker against the euro at 4.2855, while the Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.04% weaker at 25.088.
In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= was 0.10% firmer at 396.40, as investors waited for central bank minutes.
The Hungarian central bank paused its easing cycle in August after 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125 basis points, but left the door open to further easing depending on inflation developments and the policy course of major central banks.
In Poland, the finance ministry was due to sell bonds worth 6-8 billion zlotys in its first auction since the government presented its 2025 draft budget, which sees the general deficit rising to 5.5% of GDP.
"Since Poland showed a very expansive fiscal budget for 2025, I don't think we are going to see all that much interest from foreign investors in Polish bonds because the risk is quite substantial," said Poplawski.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1109 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0880 | 25.0780 | -0.04% | -1.54% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 396.4000 | 396.8000 | +0.10% | -3.33% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2855 | 4.2825 | -0.07% | +1.38% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9745 | 4.9735 | -0.02% | -0.00% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9200 | 117.0000 | +0.07% | +0.28% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1573.03 | 1581.5300 | -0.54% | +11.25% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 71966.70 | 71742.77 | +0.31% | +18.72% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2273.09 | 2307.54 | -1.49% | -2.98% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17413.11 | 17472.79 | -0.34% | +13.28% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2500 | -0.0190 | +110bps | +3bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4730 | 0.0020 | +150bps | +4bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.6750 | -0.0240 | +156bps | +1bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6380 | -0.0700 | +248bps | -3bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.9880 | -0.0620 | +301bps | -2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.2670 | -0.0380 | +316bps | +0bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.85 | 3.48 | 3.14 | 4.33 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.25 | 5.73 | 5.20 | 6.49 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.74 | 5.33 | 4.77 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Krisztina Than in Budapest; Editing by Ros Russell
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