Markets buckle up for Election Day
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
At last Election Day is here, ending an acrimonious campaign roiled by assassination attempts on Donald Trump and the swap of Kamala Harris for Joe Biden as the Democratic candidate.
Outwardly, markets gave the appearance of steadiness in the final stretch and dealing desks reported that investors have drawn down risk and settled in to wait and see.
In the eerie calm, Australia's central bank left rates on hold, as expected, and Knight's Choice won the Melbourne Cup.
Oil has been the main market mover in recent days, gaining nearly 3% on Monday after OPEC+ said it would delay a planned output hike for a second time.
U.S. polling points to an incredibly close contest and gambling markets have tightened odds in recent days, prompting a bit of a trim for wagers in financial markets on a Trump victory or a Republican sweep of Congress and the White House.
Strategists see the dollar rising if Trump wins and falling if he doesn't, except against bitcoin, which is expected to go up on a Trump win since he's seen as a softer touch on crypto regulation.
Beneath the surface, options implied volatility for the offshore yuan against the dollar CNHSWO= was at record highs, illustrating the tension and nerves about what another protectionist shift from the U.S. would mean for world trade.
When results roll in, the focus will be on the battleground states of Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Polls close in Georgia at midnight GMT.
A winner may not be known for days and Trump has signalled that he will attempt to fight any defeat, as he did in 2020.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
- U.S. election
The Trump Trade https://tmsnrt.rs/3YeC3tB
US Dollar Index https://reut.rs/4fuXxb2
By Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edmund Klamann
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