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Most EM currencies stable in lead-up to U.S. jobs data



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U.S. jobs data due at 1230 GMT

Chinese shares hit lowest closing levels since Feb. 5

EM stocks index up 0.1%, FX adds 0.3%

By Shashwat Chauhan

Sept 6 (Reuters) -Most emerging market currencies were steady on Friday as markets braced for an all-important U.S. jobs reading later in the day which could offer clues on the size of potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this month.

Non-farm payrolls data is slated to be released at 1230 GMT. Analysts are looking for new jobs to rise by 160,000 and for the unemployment rate to dip to 4.2%.

But a recent run of softer partials suggests risks are to the downside, fuelling speculation of an outsized half-point rate cut on Sept. 18.

"Yesterday's ADP data seems to confirm that the U.S. labour market continues to cool down but the NFP normally carries more weight when it comes to market impact," Teeuwe Mevissen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank, said.

Traders are all but convinced that the Fed will cut rates later this month, with 41% leaning towards a 50-bps reduction, as per the CME FedWatch Tool.

Most emerging market currencies, generally considered as risky, traded in a tight range, while traditional safe havens such as the Swiss franc CHF=D3 and the Japanese yen JPY=EBS were on the rise.

"We believe this period of pre-U.S. election dynamics and pre-Fed easing will engineer a sizeable dispersion of returns in EM FX," analysts at Citi wrote in a note.

As of 0838 GMT, MSCI's index for emerging market stocks .MSCIEF was up 0.1%, though headed for a more than 2% weekly drop, while a gauge for currencies .MIEM00000CUS rose 0.3%.

Index heavyweight the Chinese yuan CNH= was up 0.1% in offshore trading, while Chinese shares .CSI300, .SSEC recorded their lowest closing levels in seven months.

South Africa's rand ZAR=D3 held steady at 17.72 per dollar, while stocks .JTOPI slipped 0.5%.

South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond ZAR2030= hit its strongest level in almost three years on Friday, with the yield on the bond slipping below 9%.

Currencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were range-bound against the euro, while local equities slipped. CEE/

Emerging market equities saw inflows for the 14th straight week in the week to Wednesday, while debt saw outflows for the sixth straight week, according to a report by Bank of America.


HIGHLIGHTS:


** CEE ECONOMY-Consumption, investment drive Romanian growth but challenges remain

** Polish central banker Litwiniuk says rate cut possible in second half of 2025

** India to tighten derivatives rules despite investor pushback, sources say


For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2024 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2024 https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX


Reporting by Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG
For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/
For TURKISH market report, see .IS
For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB
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