NOPA September US soybean crush seen up, at 170.331 million bushels
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, Oct 14 (Reuters) -The U.S. soybean crush likely rebounded in September from a near-three-year low the prior month while soyoil stocks thinned to the lowest in almost a decade, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Tuesday.
NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 170.331 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.
If realized, it would be up 7.8% from the August crush of 158.008 million bushels, which was the lowest for any month since September 2021. It would also be up 2.9% from September 2023 when processors crushed 165.456 million bushels, which is the current record for the month of September.
Processors are anticipating having an ample supply of soybeans to crush in the coming months as the U.S. Department of Agriculture is forecasting a record-large 2024 U.S. harvest.
Crush estimates for September ranged from 164.000 million to 177.000 million bushels, with a median of 170.400 million bushels.
The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT (1600 GMT) on Tuesday.
Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Sept 30 were estimated at 1.083 billion lbs, based on estimates from seven analysts.
If the estimate is realized, it would be down 4.9% from 1.138 billion lbs at the end of August and the smallest end-of-month supply since December 2014. It would also be down 2.3% from the 1.108 billion lbs of oil held by NOPA members at the end of September last year.
Oil stocks estimates ranged from 865 million to 1.200 billion lbs, with a median of 1.100 billion lbs.
NOTE: Crush figures listed in millions of bushels and soyoil stocks are in billions of pounds.
Crush | Soyoil stocks | |
Average trade estimate | 170.331 | 1.083 |
Highest trade estimate | 177.000 | 1.200 |
Lowest trade estimate | 164.000 | 0.865 |
NOPA Aug 2024 | 158.008 | 1.138 |
NOPA Sept 2023 | 165.456 | 1.108 |
Marex, Terry Reilly | 174.700 | 1.173 |
Futures International | ||
Zaner Ag Hedge | 168.800 | 1.187 |
Linn & Associates | 177.000 | 1.200 |
Midland Research | 172.000 | |
Marex, Charlie Sernatinger | 165.000 | 1.100 |
Doane Advisory Services | 165.500 | 0.865 |
StoneX Group Inc | 174.237 | |
Advanced Economic Solutions | 166.000 | 1.075 |
McKeany - Flavell | ||
CHS Hedging | ||
Grain Service Corp | 164.000 | |
CrushTraders | 176.072 | 0.978 |
Reporting by Karl Plume; Editing by Mark Porter
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