Prompt price trends diverge, signals are bearish
FRANKFURT, Oct 30 (Reuters) -The direction of German and French spot electricity prices diverged on Wednesday but the overriding trends of rising renewable output and falling demand provided a bearish wholesale market environment.
"In Germany, demand is down by 1.7 gigawatt hours per hour (GWh/h), while wind and solar generation are up by 7.3 GWh/h and 0.9 GWh/h, respectively, resulting in an almost 10 GWh/h decrease in the residual load," LSEG analyst Naser Hashemi said in a day-ahead forecast.
Residual load is the power demand that must be met by conventional power plants after accounting for renewables production.
German day-ahead baseload TRDEBD1 was down 24.3% at 101.7 euros ($110.20) per megawatt hour (MWh) at 0900 GMT, correcting down from four-month highs reached earlier this week.
French baseload for Thursday delivery TRFRBD1 gained 13.2% at 90 euros/MWh, but retained a discount to Germany.
German wind power output is projected to double to 15.7 gigawatts (GW) from 7.7 GW day-on-day, with France losing 800 MW to hit 2.4 GW, while solar supply in both countries put together will gain 800 MW.
French nuclear availability was unchanged at 78% of total capacity. POWER/FR
Power consumption in Germany was forecast to fall by 1.7 GW to arrive at 56.1 GW on Thursday, while French demand was expected to shed 2.6 GW to reach 45.8 GW.
German year-ahead power TRDEBYZ5 was down 0.9% at 89.8 euros/MWh, while the French 2025 baseload contract TRFRBYZ5 was untraded after closing at 73.3 euros/MWh.
European CO2 allowances for December 2024 CFI2Zc1 shed 1.3% at 66.38 euros per metric ton.
German primary energy consumption in 2024 will decline by 1.7% to 356.7 million tonnes of hard coal units, the equivalent of 2.9 billion kilowatt hours (kWh), said industry statistics group AGEB.
This is nearly 30% below the highest level reached in 1990.
AGEB cited falling usage due to the slowing economy. CO2 emissions would probably fall by 3.3% this year, it said.
($1 = 0.9228 euros)
Reporting by Vera Eckert, editing by David Evans
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