Rupee to resume rise on yuan-led Asia rally, Fed outlook
By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI, Sept 25 (Reuters) -The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Wednesday, boosted by the broad uptick in Asian peers in the wake of China's steps to support the economy and increased odds that the Federal Reserve will opt for one more aggressive rate cut.
The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee INR=IN will open at 83.56-83.58 to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.67 in the previous session.
The rupee's winning run halted on Tuesday amid dollar buying by a large corporate and other importers alongside outflows related to a MSCI rebalancing that happened last Friday.
In Wednesday's session, the rupee "will benefit in a sympathetic move" looking at the yuan, Srinivas Puni, managing director at FX advisory firm QuantArt Market Solutions, said.
The dollar/rupee remains range-bound, with bias on the downside considering that the dollar is pressured by Fed rate cut expectations, Puni said.
OFFSHORE YUAN CLIMBS PAST 7
The offshore yuan strengthened past the 7.00 handle against the U.S. dollar on optimism over China's stimulus package. China's central bank lowered the cost of its medium-term loans to banks on Wednesday, in a move consistent with broad policy measures announced a day earlier to shore up the economy.
The yuan was further helped by weak U.S. consumer confidence data that increased the probability that the Fed will once more cut rates by 50 basis points (bps) at its next meeting in November. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in September.
U.S. consumer confidence has now "slipped to near the bottom of the narrow range it has been in over the past two years," ANZ Bank said in a note.
Swaps are now pricing in a more than 60% probability of a 50 bps Fed cut at the November meeting, nearly double compared to a week ago.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee INRNDFOR= forward at 83.68; onshore one-month forward premium at 11.50 paise
** Dollar index =USD up at 100.27
** Brent crude futures LCOc1 down 0.2% at $75 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.74%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $243.3 million worth of Indian shares on Sept. 23
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $1 million worth of Indian bonds on Sept. 24
Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Sonia Cheema
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