Recent strength in US soy sales not enough to lift export prospects -Braun
Repeats column first published on Thursday. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Sept 19 (Reuters) -The United States is coming off one of its worst soybean export seasons in recent memory, with shipments rivaling those from a few years ago when the No. 2 exporter was locked in a trade war with top buyer China.
Export sales of U.S. soybeans for 2024-25, which began Sept. 1, have been stronger than average over the past month as China has finally stepped in to make purchases.
But just two weeks into the new marketing year, total soy sales were at five-year lows and down 5% from this same time last year, when traders were also fretting over the disconcertingly slow pace of U.S. soy bookings.
The light U.S. soybean sales are especially disappointing as the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts global soybean consumption will reach new highs in 2024-25, driven by further expansion in soybean processing.
Additionally, recent yearly growth in Chinese soybean demand is not as strong as the decade-ago rate may have implied. Top exporter Brazil has easily captured China’s soy business despite its crop falling well short of initial ideas in two of the last three seasons.
The United States’ slipping grip on Chinese soy demand is demonstrated by recent export data. As of Sept. 12, China had purchased 5.9 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for shipment in 2024-25, representing 37% of all sales.
That is China’s smallest share for the date in 19 years outside of the trade war in 2018 and 2019. A year ago, China represented 40% of all U.S. soybean bookings, still below average.
The missing Chinese commitments are not hiding in the “unknown” category. Only 71% of all U.S. soy sales for 2024-25 are designated for China or unknown destinations, below a non-trade-war average closer to 80%.
Brazil has fewer soybeans to export this year than last and U.S. soybeans have recently been price-competitive. But for a third consecutive year, logistics are being disrupted by low water levels on the Mississippi River, restricting movement of grain to the busiest U.S. export hub.
Argentina, which mainly exports soybean products, is having a similar issue as near record-low river levels are slowing shipments and raising costs. This could potentially divert business elsewhere without improvement.
U.S. soybean exporters could use the help. As of last week, total 2024-25 U.S. soy sales accounted for 32% of USDA’s full-year export outlook, which is up 3% from last season’s meager levels.
That is well off the non-trade-war average around 43% and below the year-ago 35%, corresponding to the recently concluded 2023-24 campaign. It is worth noting that USDA’s latest 2023-24 export estimate is 5% lighter than had been forecast last September.
This means 2024-25 exports could also be at risk of shrinking, threatening to boost already ample U.S. stockpiles and possibly keeping a lid on prices.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Graphic- Percent of total U.S. soybean export sales that are to China https://tmsnrt.rs/3TCNlER
Graphic- U.S. soybean export sales, Sept. 12, versus expectations https://tmsnrt.rs/47BqTlu
Writing by Karen Braun
Editing by Matthew Lewis
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