US natgas extends decline on lesser cooling demand
By Rahul Paswan
Sept 19 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures extended their decline on Thursday on lower cooling demand due to forecasts for less warmer-than-normal weather than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.30 cents or 1.4% to $2.25 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 10:03 a.m. EDT (1403 GMT).
The market is on the low side right now as typically there is less demand for gas in the shoulder season. In the summer time natural gas goes higher because of air conditioning requirements and then in the winter time heating demand goes up, but in September and October the weather is in between, said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy at StoneX Financial.
Financial firm LSEG estimated 124 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, lower than Wednesday's 134 CDDs. The normal for this time of year is 89 CDDs. Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, at 99.8 billion cubic feet (bcfd) per day this week to 100.1 bcfd next week which is lower than the demand forecast at 100.5 bcfd on Wednesday.
LSEG forecast average gas supply in the Lower 48, including exports, at 101.7 bcfd this week to go up to 102.0 bcfd next week.
LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to an average of 102.1 bcfd so far in September, down from 103.2 bcfd in August.
"But what happens now with the October contract is that without any big weather events like a hurricane or an early cold spell the market's just going to tread water. It'll stay in this range," Saal said.
U.S. utilities likely added a smaller-than-usual 56 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage last week, according to the average estimate in a Reuters poll on Wednesday. If correct, the forecast for the week ended Sept. 13 would increase stockpiles to 3.443 trillion cubic feet. EIA/GAS
In the prior week ended Sept. 6, utilities added 40 bcf of gas into storage compared with an increase of 33 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 51 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly storage report at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Thursday.
"The EIA data is another factor that's been interesting as the injections have been a little on the low side which would be marginally bullish but we'll see what happens when the number comes out today," Saal added.
Meanwhile, the CEO of U.S. natural gas producer EQT Corp on Wednesday said U.S. prices for the fuel will remain below $3 per million British thermal units in the short term.
Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged higher on Thursday morning as a ramp-up in Norwegian maintenance curbed supply. NG/EU
Meanwhile, Chesapeake Energy's $7 billion acquisition of rival natural gas producer Southwestern Energy is expected to close early in the fourth quarter.
Week ended Sep 13 | Week ended Sep 6 | Year ago Sep 13 | Five-year average Sep 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +56 | +40 | +62 | +80 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,443 | 3,387 | 3,251 | 3,171 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 8.6% | 9.6% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.26 | 2.34 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.78 | 10.21 | 11.44 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.22 | 13.3 | 13.92 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 20 | 19 | 12 | 18 | 58 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 124 | 132 | 125 | 123 | 89 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 144 | 151 | 137 | 141 | 147 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 102.1 | 101.7 | 102.0 | 103.5 | 96.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | N/A | 7.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 110.1 | 109.8 | 109.6 | N/A | 103.6 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | N/A | 6.0 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 12.1 | 8.2 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
U.S. Residential | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 39.4 | 40.0 | 40.0 | 42.1 | 36.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.9 | 21.5 | 21.7 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 77.4 | 77.8 | 77.9 | 79.4 | 80.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 99.6 | 99.8 | 100.1 | N/A | 90.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 74 | 74 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
Jan-Jul | 76 | 76 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
Oct-Sep | 77 | 78 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Sep 20 | Week ended Sep 13 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 10 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 44 | 46 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.31 | 2.33 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.66 | 1.82 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.53 | 2.24 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.58 | 1.75 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.96 | 2.08 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.95 | 2.2 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 1.95 | 1.82 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.05 | 1.12 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.44 | 0.45 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.5 | 37.75 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 45.5 | 39.5 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 37 | 24.25 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 46.25 | 41 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 19 | 19.25 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 17.5 | 17.5 |
Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru;
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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