speak round-up: Guiding towards back-to-back cuts
Oct 9 (Reuters) -At the ECB’s September meeting, among the key takeaways had been that the bar for an October cut was raised, after President Christine Lagarde highlighted that the next gathering was only a short time away, suggesting there may not be a sufficient amount of data to determine whether a cut would be appropriate.
However, with the Federal Reserve surprising with a jumbo-sized rate cut – 50bps – to kick off their easing cycle, as well as a downside surprise in the latest PMI figures, an October cut has become the market's base case. Yet again this emphasizes that with the laser focus on incoming data, forward guidance by central banks offers little value.
In line with the increased odds of an October cut, ECB officials have also come round to the idea of additional easing at the upcoming meeting and thus guiding to such outcome. Even the more hawkish members have shown an openness to a cut with the likes of ECB’s Isabel Schnabel stating that they cannot ignore the headwinds to growth.
Consequently, with the ECB appearing to shift away from quarterly cuts to back-to-back moves, there is room for euro downside going forward.
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ECB speak https://tmsnrt.rs/3XXBhiL
(Justin McQueen is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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