Sterling close to 2-1/2-year high versus euro on policy rate bets
By Stefano Rebaudo
Nov 8 (Reuters) -Sterling was within striking distance of its highest level in more than 2-1/2 years against the euro on Friday as investors bet the European Central Bank would follow a faster monetary easing path than the Bank of England.
The BoE cut interest rates on Thursday for the second time since 2020 and said future reductions were likely to be gradual, as it predicted the British government's first budget would lead to higher inflation and economic growth.
Last week's budget, with its heavy borrowing and spending, prompted investors to dial back their bets on the pace of further rate cuts.
Investors expect the ECB to be more dovish than the BoE as the euro-zone economy is likely to be hit harder than the UK's if incoming U.S. President Donald Trump implements higher tariffs when he takes office on Jan. 20.
However, analysts' views about the BoE easing path and its impact on the British currency remained mixed.
"We think there is a gap to be filled on the dovish side in the Sterling Overnight Index Average's (Sonia) curve," said Francesco Pesole, forex strategist at ING.
SONIA is the risk-free reference rate for the sterling market.
"Such repricing may, however, take some time to show, and the rate/growth differential with the euro zone means there should be continued resistance on a substantial shift higher in the euro/sterling cross," he added.
The pound was down 0.05% at 83.24 pence per euro EURGBP=.
In mid-October, it hit 82.97 pence, its highest level since April 2022.
Rabobank sees the UK bank rate at 3.75% at the end of 2025 and no rate cut in December.
Money markets expect the ECB deposit and facility rate to fall to 2% by June from the current 3.25%.
Sterling was down 0.25% against the dollar GBP= at $1.2956.
Lee Hardman, senior forex strategist at MUFG, said he expected the euro to move closer to support from the 0.8200 level, which the pair hasn't traded below since the initial fallout from the Brexit referendum in June 2016.
He also sees the bullish implications for the U.S. dollar from a Trump victory and the likely Red Sweep, which will cap further upside for cable beyond the 1.3000 level.
Graphic: World FX rates in 2023 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
Graphic: Trade-weighted sterling since Brexit vote http://tmsnrt.rs/2hwV9Hv
Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; editing by William Maclean
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
