Sterling elevator down has several stops
Sterling bulls have endured a tough week has sterling tumbled and those who have remained may soon flee as U.S.-UK yield spreads narrow.
Higher Treasury yields and broad dollar strength after a strong U.S. jobs report are particularly onerous for interest rate sensitive currencies like the pound.
The direction of short-term yields is topical after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey hinted, in an interview Thursday, that rate cuts could accelerate as price pressures recede.
Cable’s likely demise was delayed Friday by two factors. First, share gains following the U.S. data offer a sense of financial market optimism that temporarily buttresses the risk-sensitive pound. Second, Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill said the central bank should move gradually when cutting interest rates, in contrast to Bailey’s interview.
These factors left cable holding above its 55-day moving average at 1.3058 and key support near 1.30.
But this could change if UK retail sales or GDP disappoints next week. Any softening of UK interest rates will help flip three-month forward points in cable from a discount to premium, undermining the pound in the process.
Key levels to watch on further cable weakness include 1.3025, the September 11 low, and 1.28595, the June 12 high. Weekly CFTC data shows futures market going long the pound around 1.28 in May.
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Cable chart https://tmsnrt.rs/4eP7dgd
(Robert Fullem is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.)
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