Empire strikes back: NY manufacturing springs to life
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EMPIRE STRIKES BACK: NY MANUFACTURING SPRINGS TO LIFE
Factory activity in New York State has sprung to life this month, boasting its best reading in more than two years.
New York Federal Reserve's Manufacturing index (aka "Empire State") USEMPM=ECI unexpectedly leap-frogged into positive territory for the first time since November, surging to 11.5 from August's contractive -4.7 reading.
It marks the highest level since April 2022 and defied the -4.75 consensus.
An Empire State reading above zero signifies monthly expansion.
Noting that while "shipments are increasing strongly," Richard Dietz, the NY Fed's economic research advisor says "employment continued to decline modestly."
"Firms grew more optimistic that conditions would improve in the months ahead, though capital spending plans were weak," Dietz adds.
High interest rates and tighter financial conditions have been headwinds for the manufacturing sector, which contributes about 11% to U.S. GDP.
And now, with the promise of rate cuts from the Fed, amid cooling inflation, businesses and consumers appear to be increasingly willing to stop deferring expenditures on goods.
"Manufacturers can look forward to a reduction in input costs ahead, following the sharp fall in oil prices and the renewed decline in shipping costs over the past month," writes Samuel Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The weak state of demand for goods suggests that these savings will filter through to households, extending the run of slightly falling CPI core goods prices."
On Thursday, the release of the Philadelphia Fed's "Philly Fed" manufacturing index will add detail to the picture of Atlantic region goods producers.
(Stephen Culp)
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FOR MONDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
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Empire State https://reut.rs/3ZsCMrI
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