Jefferies sees no improvement for luxury in H2
** Jefferies sees no appreciable improvement for the luxury market in the second half of the year after a fragile demand in H1
** The broker says the Q2 weakness and the flattish demand are likely to continue with a slowdown in China, a decrease in travel spend and the uncertainty in the US
** It sees reversion to a shared mean across market share gainers and laggards as a key driver but says valuations are not enough of a support if forecast revisions remain negative
** The broker prefer Hermes HRMS.PA with expecting sales resilience, Compagnie Richemont CFR.S as it has seen consumers rightly adjust to a more negative view on watches and Prada 1913.F with ability to outperform to be confirmed in the weeks ahead, rating them "buy"
** It remains cautious on Swatch UHR.S reflecting its outsized exposure to mid price points and the Chinese cluster and Burberry BRBY.L reflecting the uncertainty stemming from a brand positioning in need of recalibration, downgrading them to "underperform"
COMPANY | RATING | OLD RATING | PT | OLD PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Hermes | Buy | - | EUR 2,200 | EUR 2,470 |
LVMH | Hold | - | EUR 600 | EUR 690 |
Kering | Hold | - | EUR 230 | EUR 300 |
Burberry | Underperform | Hold | GBp 490 | GBp 800 |
Brunello Cucinelli | Hold | - | EUR 90 | EUR 97 |
Compagnie Richemont | Buy | - | CHF 135 | CHF 165 |
Ferrari | Hold | - | EUR 400 | EUR 375 |
Ferrari | Hold | - | USD 445 | USD 403 |
Moncler | Hold | - | EUR 48 | EUR 58 |
Prada | Buy | - | HKD 60 | HKD 67 |
Swatch Group | Underperform | Hold | CHF 120 | CHF 170 |
Reporting by Mathias de Rozario
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