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EURUSD

XM Research

XM Research - 2 days ago

Quick Brief – US jobs bounce back less than expected, dollar slips

US economy adds 142k jobs in August versus forecast of 160k But unemployment rate dips as wage growth accelerates   Nonfarm payrolls bounced back in August, rising by 142k, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% as expected. However, the payrolls figure is below the consensus forecast of 160k jobs and the prior month’s reading of 114k was revised down to 89k, feeding doubts about the health of the US economy.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Daily Comment – Investors lock gaze on NFP data

Dollar slides as data offer little respite to concerned investors NFP to accelerate somewhat, but PMI surveys pose downside risks S&P 500 and Dow Jones end in red ahead of the job numbers Gold rebounds, approaches record high; oil stabilizes Data fail to alleviate investors’ worries The dollar traded lower against all of its major counterparts on Thursday as the boost received by the better-than-expected initial jobless claims and the improving ISM non-manufacturing PMI
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Technical Analysis – EURUSD bulls back into play

EURUSD bounces off 1.1030 Stochastics and RSI head north EURUSD has been advancing from the 1.1030 support level, surpassing the 20-day SMA and reaching the 1.1100 round number. The %K and %D lines of the stochastic oscillator have posted a bullish crossover in the oversold territory, while the RSI is pointing upwards above the 50 level.   Should the pair manage to strengthen its positive momentum, the next resistance could come around the 13-month high of 1.1200. A break highe
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Midweek Technical Look - EURUSD, US 500, oil

EURUSD rebounded off 1.1030 ahead of NFP data US 500 looks flat after aggressive losses WTI crude oil heads slightly up from 8-month low
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Daily Comment – Equities weakness lingers as focus remains on US data

Equities remain on the back foot as key US data on the menu today ADP, jobless claims and ISM Services could prove market moving Dollar’s mixed performance continues, yen benefits OPEC+ production rumours fail to push oil prices higher US data releases in the spotlight Equity markets continue to exhibit a rather unexpected fragility as second tier data like Wednesday’s JOLTs job openings resulted in another negative session in most stock indices around the globe.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Stocks could suffer after the September Fed rate cut

US labour market data to determine the size of the first Fed rate cut History points to an increased possibility of a 50bps move Analysis reveals sizeable equities’ weakness after the initial cut Following Fed Chairman Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and this indirect announcement of the much-discussed Fed rate cut, the market is counting down to the September 18 meeting.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Will the NFP take a September double Fed cut off the table? – Preview

Fed fund futures suggest a 40% chance of a 50bps September cut Powell’s Jackson Hole speech adds importance to jobs data US employment report scheduled for Friday at 13:30 GMT   Investors see increasing chance of 50bps cut The dollar had a rough time in August, underperforming against all its major counterparts as market participants remained convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates by around 105 basis points by the end of the year.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar could suffer if the ISM survey disappoints

Markets are preparing for an action-packed week The US dollar is on the front foot following the bank holiday Focus turns to the ISM manufacturing survey today Gold drops, oil recovers but outlook remains mixed Focus on US data releases With US participants returning from the extended bank holiday weekend, the focus today will firmly be on the US data calendar.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar gains amid adjusted Fed rate cut bets

PCE inflation holds steady, 50bps cut less likely Euro slips as Eurozone inflation drops to lowest in three years Wall Street gains on soft-landing hopes Traders scale back Fed rate cut bets as NFP week begins The US dollar finished last week on a strong footing, gaining against all its major counter parts on Friday, with market participants somewhat scaling back their Fed rate cut bets.
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XM Research - 6 days agoBullish

Technical Analysis – EURUSD pauses bearish correction near 1.1050

EURUSD recoups some losses Finds support near 20-day SMA Stochastics and RSI point north EURUSD is recovering somewhat after three consecutive red days from its 13-month high of 1.1200. The price is flirting with the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 1.1050 support level, while the technical oscillators are showing some improvement.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Dollar edges up ahead of PCE inflation as stocks drift

All eyes on US core PCE and consumption as bets for 50-bps cut stall Dollar headed for weekly gains but Nasdaq has disappointing week Euro on the backfoot as soft Eurozone CPI cements September cut Big Tech woes weigh on Wall Street The US dollar looks set to pare its monthly losses as it heads for its first weekly gain since mid-July amid more evidence that the US economy is humming along nicely.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Week Ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Traders see decent chance for 50bps Fed cut in September Powell adds extra importance to jobs data, NFP awaited BoC decides on rates, third consecutive cut is fully priced in Aussie traders lock gaze on GDP numbers   Bets for double Fed cut remain elevated Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Daily Comment – Nvidia earnings fail to buoy markets, focus turns to US data

Nvidia slumps in after-hours trading as earnings don’t excite Equities mixed as attention turns to US data for direction Kiwi outperforms, euro slips on soft German and Spanish CPI figures No post-Nvidia boost for equities Nvidia’s much anticipated earnings results for the second quarter failed to deliver on the very high expectations even as the chip giant saw its revenue more than double from a year ago.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Technical Analysis – EURUSD plunges from 1.1200

EURUSD looks ready for bearish correction Stochastics and RSI head south EURUSD is declining from the 13-month high of 1.1200 that was reached in the preceding week. The pair is now ready for a potential downside retracement according to the technical oscillators. The stochastic is tumbling from the overbought region and the RSI is also diving beneath the 70 level.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Rate cut euphoria tempered by geopolitics as oil surges

Mood turns cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty in Libya and Gaza Fears of supply disruptions drive up oil prices, S&P 500 closes lower China concerns also weigh but European stocks turn positive as data awaited Geopolitical risks take over as oil rallies Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday and the US dollar consolidated as investors turned cautious ahead of the week’s main events amid renewed fears about disruptions to oil supply.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Quick Brief – Gloomy German Ifo survey weighs on euro as dollar rebounds

Germany’s ifo Institute warns economy is “falling into crisis” Jump in US durable goods orders aid dollar’s recovery   Worries are mounting about Europe’s largest economy after the President of the ifo Institute, Clemens Fuest, warned that Germany is “increasingly falling into crisis” in the latest monthly survey report. The ifo business climate index in August fell to the lowest since February, although the reading of 86.6 was slightly above forecasts of 86.0. Speakin
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Daily Comment – Powell signals it’s time to cut; dollar sinks but risk rally muted

Powell says the time has come for rate cuts, pushing yields and dollar lower But cautious rally in stocks as Nvidia earnings, inflation data awaited Oil jumps amid fresh escalation between Israel and Hezbollah Powell green lights rate cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell locked in a September rate cut on Friday, using his Jackson Hole address to signal the Fed’s long-awaited pivot toward an easing cycle.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – US dollar index, EURUSD, USDJPY

US Core PCE index could attract greater attention with an impact on dollar index Eurozone flash CPI closer to ECB’s target; EURUSD unlocks 1.1200 Japan’s Tokyo CPI might stay put; USDJPY heads south US core PCE inflation --> US dollar index   The release of the US Core PCE price index for July this Friday will provide crucial insights into the underlying inflation trends.
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