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US30Cash

XM Research

XM Research - 3 days ago

Quick brief – US JOLTs disappoint, Wall Street trembles

US job openings fall to the lowest since April 2021 Bets for a 50bps rate cut increase Wall Street moves between gains and loses   US JOLTs job openings retreated to the lowest in three and a half years of 7.76 million in July compared to the forecast of 8.09 million and June’s negatively revised reading of 7.91 million. The data followed a negative surprise in the ISM manufacturing PMI, with investors further raising the odds for a double rate cut to 45% on concerns the econo
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

US 30 index hangs near record high – Stock Markets

US 30 benefits from weaker correlation with tech stocks; holds near record high Downside risks remain, but sentiment still positive above 41,000     The US 30 index has less exposure to AI-related technology companies and that’s partially the reason why it has gained only 9.7% year-to-date versus the double-digit growth of around 19% in the US 500 and US 100 indices.
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XM Research - 3 weeks agoNeutral

Technical Analysis – US 30 index loses steam near July’s barrier

US 30 recoups losses but cannot resume uptrend Short-term bias is positive; confirmation awaited above 40,900 FOMC meeting minutes due at 18:00 GMT   Following a downturn at the beginning of the month, the US 30 index (cash) has made a strong comeback, although it encountered obstacles in surpassing the 40,900 threshold on Tuesday.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Volatility ebbs as recession fears evaporate – Volatility Watch

Besides EUR/USD, FX volatility subsides as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in precious metals is still high, but oil enters calmer waters Stock indices and Bitcoin volatility at their bottom of their 30-day range Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected July NFP report have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths. This week, investors are focused on Jerome Powell's Jackson H
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Was the recent stock market slump an overreaction? – Stock Markets

US indices took a hit after a soft NFP report sparked recessions fears But risk sentiment rebounded, and investors eagerly bought the dip What events may disrupt the market's supposed immunity to downside risks?   V-shaped recovery July’s softer-than-expected NFP report sent shockwaves across all asset classes as fears that the US economy is on the brink of a recession emerged.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Market anxiety fades but volatility remains high – Volatility Watch

FX volatility smoothens a little bit as markets digest rate path repricing Volatility in commodities still high amid resurgence of geopolitical tensions Stock indices and Bitcoin still volatile while traders unwind bearish bets  Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected NFP report two weeks ago have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths.
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Market angst pushes volatility higher across the board – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility skyrockets as recession fears resurface Volatility in commodities jumps as geopolitics takes centre stage Stock indices experience much stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, jumped to the highest level of the past month as fears of recession, on the back of last Friday’s weak US labour market report, resulted in the market pricing in an aggressive easing path for most central banks during 2024.
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XM Research - 1 month ago

Volatility remains elevated across the board – Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile after BoJ hike aids yen's recovery Volatility in commodity sphere jumps amid geopolitical flare ups Global stock indices in turbulent waters but for different reasons   Volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the latest interest rate hike by the BoJ has added more fuel to the yen’s recovery from multi-year lows against major peers.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Heightened volatility across all asset classes – Volatility Watch

• Yen crosses are volatile as they retreat from multi-year highs • Volatility in oil and gold surges, Bitcoin follows suit • US equities exhibit higher volatility amid correction fears The euro and dollar pairs maintain low volatility ahead of the US PCE release on Friday and a quiet week on the European data front. On the flipside, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the pairs have been extending their latest pullbacks from multi-year highs.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Market Comment – Market in waiting mode as key data in sight

VP Harris close to securing nominee status Dollar trades sideways against the euro Tech stocks’ reaction higher helps S&P 500 breathe better Gold under pressure, drags bitcoin lower US Presidential race hots up Incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris has apparently made a significant step in securing the Democratic party’s nominee status by earning the support of enough delegates ahead of the August 19-22 party convention.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Higher market volatility led by yen, gold and equities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low despite weekend’s events Volatility in commodities jumps, apart from oil Stock indices experience stronger volatility, decoupling from Bitcoin Euro/dollar volatility remains very low despite last week’s weaker CPI report and the weekend’s gun attack on the Republican Presidential candidate. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses has increased considerably as the BoJ is rumoured to have intervened last week in dollar/yen, ahead of the
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XM Research - 2 months agoNeutral

US 30 index in the green again following a few mixed sessions It remains a tad below its recent all-time high Momentum indicators support the current uptrend The US 30 cash index is in the green again today, following some mixed sessions. The bulls are probably feeling confident again as the index is 4.5% higher from its May 30 trough, and a tad below its May 20 high of 40,094. The increased chances of an early Fed rate cut have boosted buying appetite, but today’s critical CPI r
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Lower FX volatility as equities appear agitated – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops aggressively Volatility in commodities increases a tad, apart from oil S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 indices’ volatility jumps Euro/dollar volatility has eased further over the past week as the market is feeling more relaxed after Le Pen’s far-right party failed spectacularly to win the highest number of seats in the second round of the French parliamentary election.
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Q2 Earnings season: A strong test for stretched valuations – Stock Markets

Earnings parade unofficially starts on July 12 with major US banks S&P 500 profit growth forecast at 10.6% y/y, all eyes on tech results Asymmetric risks due to rosy valuations and optimistic earnings projections Stellar first half Undoubtedly, the US stock markets had another astonishing quarter and a roaring first half of the year as the US economy seems to be headed for a soft landing. It has been more than 21 months now since the stock market experienced a sizable correcti
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Yen volatility remains high as equities appear calmer – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps after French elections Volatility in commodities eases, apart from oil Stock indices’ volatility falls ahead of key data releases Euro/dollar volatility has eased over the past week as the market is breathing slightly easier following Sunday’s French elections result. On the flip side, volatility in yen crosses remains extremely high as market participants continue to provoke the BoJ by pushing dollar/yen above the level that led to the end-April
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XM Research - 2 months ago

Nvidia rebounds as investors seem eager to buy the AI dip – Stock Markets

Nvidia erases a significant part of its 3-day slide Investors are bullish as AI keeps delivering earnings Subdued volatility hints low odds of a broader correction   Nvidia’s roller coaster ride moves markets The last few days have been eventful for the US stock market mainly because of Nvidia’s volatile moves. The AI darling lost over $430 billion in market capitalisation in three successive sessions starting from last Thursday, marking the largest three-day loss in the sto
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XM Research - 3 months ago

Besides commodities, volatility is heightened across the board - Volatility Watch

Yen crosses are very volatile as they approach intervention levels Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin follows suit Volatility in yen pairs has been elevated for the past few days as they have been trading within breathing distance from the levels that Japanese authorities were willing to defend in the recent past.
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XM Research - 3 months ago

Volatility skyrockets in FX and stock markets - Volatility Watch

Euro and pound pairs are very volatile but for different reasons Volatility is extremely low in the commodity sphere US and global equities exhibit volatility jump, Bitcoin seems quiet Volatility in euro crosses has picked up as the region suffers from political instability following the EU elections and fears of a renewed debt crisis.
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XM Research - 3 months ago

Can stocks keep defying gravity? – Stock Markets

US stock indices sail towards successive record highs Hawkish Fed doesn’t scare bulls as volatility remains inexistent Valuations are historically stretched but earnings keep growing   High after high All major US indices are having an astonishing year, recording consecutive all-time highs as the economy seems more and more likely to achieve a soft-landing.
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