RBA policy meeting : It’s not time for a rate cut yet

XM Research

RBA policy meeting : It’s not time for a rate cut yet – Preview

Sep 20, 2024 at 1:09 pm GMT- Christina Parthenidou

RBA expected to deviate from the Fed and hold rates steady
Inflation risks remain a concern; labor market is tight
AUDUSD faces resistance near 0.6835; next barrier around 0.6875-0.6900

RBA to keep rates steady

It will be time for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to announce its rate decision when its policy meeting concludes on Tuesday, but don't expect a Fed-like rate surprise.

The RBA hasn’t started the phase of rate cuts yet and may stay out of it for the seventh consecutive meeting, keeping interest rates on hold at 4.35% next week. This is lower than the Fed’s and the BoE’s benchmark rates, which peaked higher, and with Australian inflation edging slightly up to 3.8% y/y in Q2 from 3.6% y/y in Q1, policymakers may reasonably abstain from any accommodative moves.

Australian labor market stays solid

Headlines in the labor market have been encouraging since the previous gathering. Employment continued to grow steadily above the pre-pandemic average of 30k for the fifth consecutive month in August, beating analysts’ expectations by a wide margin. The last time Australian jobs showed nonstop growth for more than five months was in 2021.

A steady unemployment rate was also good news despite the measure stabilizing slightly above the record low of 3.5%, and with the participation rate holding near all-time high, the labor market remains tight compared to historical standards and a source of inflationary pressures according to the RBA chief economist Sarah Hunter. Therefore, the labor market is not a serious catalyst yet for a dovish policy turn, meaning the central bank might keep the sentence which states “policy should remain sufficiently restrictive” in place for a bit longer.

Will there be a rate cut this year?

Yet, the economy is not in great shape. The overall pace of economic growth is pale at 0.2% q/q and 1.0% y/y as of Q2, making investors wonder about how long the central bank can wait before cutting interest rates. According to futures markets, investors pushed back their rate cut projections from November to December following the latest upbeat jobs report, but kept the odds below 50%. Instead, they feel more confident that the easing phase may start in February 2025 and include four rate cuts by the end of the year.

AUDUSD levels to watch

In FX markets, AUDUSD has been benefiting from the RBA-Fed policy divergence, hitting a nine-month high of 0.6837 on Thursday. Persisting hawkish signals similar to the August meeting, including steady rates by the end of the year and inflation concerns, may not surprise investors. Perhaps, the aussie could enjoy some gains if the odds for a 25bps rate cut move beyond December to February. Technically, a bounce above 0.6835 could immediately pause within the 0.6875-0.6900 zone. If not, the 0.6980 area taken from February 2023 could be the next obstacle.Alternatively, although the central bank has all the excuses to stand pat on rates, a surprising dovish communication, suggesting the central bank could cut its borrowing costs earlier in 2025 or even in December 2024, might prompt a rapid downfall to 0.6700-0.6740 and then to 0.6620.Later in the week, monthly CPI figures for August could generate fresh volatility in the aussie on Wednesday, while Australian Q3 job vacancies and the RBA’s financial stability review might cause some movement on Thursday.